This weekend I got frustrated by the lack of easy-to-find and up-to-date national- and state-level coronavirus trends. Specifically:
- How many cases and deaths have been reported each day? And,
- What is the rate of change?
So I created my own, using data from the New York Times, which they’ve made publicly available on Github and update daily.
I know that a lot of very smart people — including statisticians, epidemiologists, and medical professionals, which I’m not one of — are researching coronavirus and developing robust models. But their raw data and findings aren’t necessarily updated daily or shared with the public. I’m also aware that mine is a very simple analysis, with no accounting for, say, the availability of test kits, undiagnosed cases, or hospital bed counts.
I’ve run numbers only for the US generally, and for states and counties that impact me most:
- Colorado, Massachusetts, and Michigan, where I live and have family;
- Alaska and California, where I have trips planned in June and July; and finally,
- New York and Washington, which perhaps are harbingers for the country.
If you want other state data:
- Make a copy of the Sheet;
- Duplicate any one of the state tabs, except Colorado, which sometimes includes manual data from our health department that’s not yet in the NYT data; and,
- Enter your state name in cell B1.
To keep your Sheet updated, the raw data must be downloaded from Github and imported. Or just come back here — I’ll be doing that almost daily.
For easier viewing, open this Sheet in a new window.
To edit this Sheet, create your own copy under “File.”
Analysis and questions
The IHME model suggests that the US will reach its peak on April 15; Colorado, two days later on April 17.
But I’m uncertain how they’re getting this result, at least for Colorado. For five consecutive days (March 26-30), Colorado has reported flat-line or negative growth in both cases and deaths. Under the current circumstances — in which few people seem to be going anywhere or interesting with anyone, at least in Boulder — it’s hard to imagine that a five-fold surge in cases is coming our way.
If a few days of additional data support the possibility that Colorado has flattened its curve, that raises the next question: How do we get out of this without igniting it again?